The 14^thGeneral Election in Malaysia was held, with the unexpected victory of a coalition of opposition parties under the leadership ofDr Mahatir Mohamad, who previously served as Prime Minister between 1981 and 2003.

Among his first orders of business will be to spring his former deputy Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, from jail and arrange him a pardon.  This will then allow Mahatir to pass the leadership on to Anwar.  Anwar’s wife will serve as deputy.

There has been much confusion in Malaysia over the process of transferring power.  This is a result of a lack of familiarity with the mechanics of a change in leadership.  This election represents the first change in government in Malaysia in over 60 years.

Mahatir achieved this victory despite the circumstances of the election being extremely favourable to the outgoing Prime Minister, Najib Razak.  These included:

• A new ‘fake news’ law which could be used to prevent discussion of any sensitive topics.
• The election being held mid-week when it would be more difficult for voters to attend polling places, potentially limiting the ability of Mahatir to attract voters.
• A compliant press, with major print and broadcasting under government control.
• A redistribution of electorates which was favourable to the incumbent government.
• The fact that Mahatir paved the way for many of the practices which Najib continued.Jailing political opponents, limiting free speech and freedom of the press, were all practiced under Mahatir’s first tenure as Prime Minister.

Overwhelming these advantages, however, were:

• A general dislike of Najib, due to his opulent lifestyle and questions about billions of dollars being routed to his personal accounts, which were never satisfactorily explained. Although understanding the nature of the international finance was difficult, Mahatir had an ability to bring this down to a simple, resonating message.
• The respect with which Mahatir is held in Malaysia. This has in a sense inoculated him from attacks by the government and allowed him to get away with actions that no other opposition leader could, suh as leading mass protest marches.
• Economic pressures – particularly the cost of living pressures.

The financial impact of the election result has seen the value of the Malaysian Ringgit fall and the price of companies exposed to Malaysian economy also fall on other stock markets.  The two days following the election were announced as public holidays when it became clear that the government would change, limiting impact on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange.  I believe that there are a number of reasons for this fall:

• Some economically popular, but potentially fiscally unwise items in the new Government’s platform – such as eliminating the 6% GST in Malaysia, which was introduced in 2015, and subsidising fuel. Anwar seems to be a centre-left politician, but friendly towards the West.
• The uncertainty surrounding a new government in a country which has never seen a government of any party other than Barisan National.
• The unexpected nature of the result.
• The change in government redefining the relationship with the government and private sector. What were lucrative positions may now become potential headaches for firms as inevitable investigations into the previous governments’ activities highlight and punish corruption.  Less seriously, parties to ‘pet projects’ such as high-speed rail may be facing uncertainty. Anwar’s previous term as deputy prime minister saw him cut government spending, particularly in such projects.

Regardless of the success or otherwise of Malaysia’s new Government, it will provide an important service for years to come.  It will show Malaysians that they can change the government.

This is a budget that is seeking relying heavily on a dramatic uptick in business activity to support a reduced deficit, cuts in income tax and consistent real reduction in expenditure. This business activity is expected to be driven by continued solid investment in the non-mining sector and growth in the mining sector.

Figure 1: Investment Growth

The Economic Environment

The charts in Figure 1 highlight how similar the economic outlook is compared with last year’s budget.

• GDP growth and CPI growth remain in line with the previous forecasts.
• Unemployment marginally lower, (by around 0.25%).
• Lower wage growth.

The personal income tax cut, highlighted by the Government, indicate that the government is seeking to achieve lower unemployment by providing an increasing share of workers disposable income.

Figure 2: Key Economic Statistics, Budgets 2018-19 v 2017-18

The global economy is expected to remain relatively unchanged compared with previous year’s budget, with the notable changes being stronger growth in Japan and US. While the budget does mention “recent tariff announcements by the US Administration, and fears that they may escalate, present uncertainties for both the US and global outlook”, this does not appear to be reflected in the numbers.

Personal income tax cuts

The key points about the personal income tax is that it will be introduced in stages, with lower income taxpayers being at the front of the queue as the cuts are rolled out over the coming years. The government has focussed on these tax cuts, restructuring their argument and allowing the corporate tax cuts which have commandeered so much political capital recently.

Microsoft Excel offers two common functions to refer to the current date and/or time: Today() and Now().

This short note describes the risks associated with the use of these functions and suggests that they be used with care.

Firstly, both of these functions are volatile. To understand why this is bad, we need a brief diversion into the way spreadsheets work. Excel maintains a list of cells which are impacted by changes in each cells value. In a simple financial model, changing the price may change revenue and profit lines, but seeing no link, Excel will not seek to recalculate the expense section of your workbook. This saves time. However, introducing volatile functions means that the spreadsheet will now recalculate these functions. Any cells which may rely on them. This will slow down your spreadsheet.

Secondly, and most importantly, these functions can be misleading if used in the way they are meant to be used. For example, a spreadsheet which generates a daily report could save the user time by using the TODAY() function – no need to update the day every day. However, this will then create issues unless it is based on a lookup of the date. Static numbers or formulae will lead to confusion.

Updated

The date look up table was imagining a report which looked up a figure from a daily time series.  In that case, the entire report will update with the latest day’s data, potentially being useful.  I was discouraging the attempt to have yesterday’s report being rendered confusing because the headings are now for today but it still holds yesterday’s results.